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Paul Gambles

Recognized as a regional financial expert, Paul is a regular speaker at industry events on market forecasting, financial planning, investing and legal issues for foreigners living or doing business in Asia.  Besides Paul’s blog, Paul previously distributed his ‘almost-daily’ email – “Daily Updates”, where he gave his views on timely issues affecting financial markets, macro economics, micro economics and everything in-between.

Born in South Yorkshire, England, Paul graduated from the University of Warwick with an Honours degree in English and European Studies.  He began his financial career in the early 1980s as a technical inspector at HMIT with Inland Revenue.  Following a successful career change to the Bank of Scotland in 1987, Paul moved to Bangkok in 1994 to help set-up an investment counseling practice, which today is known as MBMG International.

www.mbmg-international.com

  

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31 January 2012

Cycling Uphill

Last Wednesday, myself and AEC Group’s Carey Ramm gave AustCham members a lively debate about the health of the Thai, Australian and global economies. Carey gave a very well-informed view of where the Australian economy is right now, whereas I took more of a look at what’s coming down the track. I used the 4 seasons Kondratieff chart  that has been a reference point in presentations by MBMG Group and also MitonOptimal  over the years - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsR9z1W4a8I. Interestingly, MitonOptimal’s institutional asset allocation expert, Professor Evan Gilbert, also used the same chart in his Global Weekly Comment the very next day – great minds think alike!

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What I would add is that Asean markets entered into the winter phase in 1997 and took remedial action that has seen them already return to Spring – however the early days of this season will be a particularly cold spring season as chill winds from Western and Japanese winters blow through these markets. Asean will still be the healthiest region to invest but the best opportunities will come when markets are significantly ( 30% or more ) below current levels. These are markets in which patience and stock picking are most definitely virtues.