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Paul Gambles

Recognized as a regional financial expert, Paul is a regular speaker at industry events on market forecasting, financial planning, investing and legal issues for foreigners living or doing business in Asia.  Besides Paul’s blog, Paul previously distributed his ‘almost-daily’ email – “Daily Updates”, where he gave his views on timely issues affecting financial markets, macro economics, micro economics and everything in-between.

Born in South Yorkshire, England, Paul graduated from the University of Warwick with an Honours degree in English and European Studies.  He began his financial career in the early 1980s as a technical inspector at HMIT with Inland Revenue.  Following a successful career change to the Bank of Scotland in 1987, Paul moved to Bangkok in 1994 to help set-up an investment counseling practice, which today is known as MBMG International.

www.mbmg-international.com

  

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 2 March 2010

Alive dreams of the survival of the European federal union!


Angie, Angie, when will those clouds all disappear?
Angie, Angie, where will it lead us from here?
With no loving in our souls and no money in our coats
You can't say we're satisfied
But Angie, Angie, you can't say we never tried
Angie, you're beautiful, but ain't it time we said goodbye?
Angie, I still love you, remember all those nights we cried?
All the dreams we held so close seemed to all go up in smoke
Let me whisper in your ear:
Angie, Angie, where will it lead us from here?


  -The Rolling Stones
We'd like to dedicate the above to German leader, Angela Merkel, as she desperately tries to keep alive dreams of the survival of the European federal union, the single currency or even just the domestic banking system which is on the verge of being bankrupted by its exposure to the basket case economies of Western, Central and Eastern Europe. Trying to bail out the biggest global financial crisis of all time may have fatal consequences. It's definitely time that the Euro said goodbye to Portugal, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Belgium, Holland and Austria just for starters. Politically we have no problem with Maastricht or the Euro but economically it seems to be doomed.

We're no fans of Goldman or their fellow 'Street' partners in crime but we see a delicious irony that having so often gotten away scot-free they seem to be getting blamed for problems that are far more to do with the structural infeasibility of the single currency than with wrongdoing by Goldmans. Frau Merkel's attempts to shift the blame away from Greece by banning CDO products are like trying to stop supermarkets selling wine because a drunk-driver has injured other road users. The driver (Greece) seems to be escaping German wrath as do the police who performed a breathalyser test (Eurostat) . This transaction has been in the public domain for the best part of a decade and could and should have been better understood and publicised by the Eurozone's finance professionals.


In the inverse beauty pageant that is major western currencies in 2010, the Euro currently is the ugliest. Mind you we suspect that the others will have plenty of tricks up their sleeves later in the year that may change that.....