‘There have only been two other times when the stock market ran parabolically up from a low in barely over a year, as was the case this time around- the 112% surge from June 1, 1932 to September 7, 1932, and the 116% run-up from March 2, 1933 to July 18, 1933,’ he says.

‘In the first case, we had a 40% correction and in the second, the correction was 34%. So, we are talking here about the prospect of a pretty hefty reversal in the S&P 500 that could very easily take the index down to as low as 850, if the history of these types of givebacks is any indication.’

That’s still some way above our fears of a S&P botton of 300-580 but Rosenberg, who is now chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, insists that there is little to be positive about, accepts that this is reflected in a lot of the key indicators and therefore believes that the market  has started to price  in the macro outlook.

However we believe that he fails to take account if how far markets might dip-The Shiller Price to Earnings ratio (which calculates the P/E ratio of the market using ten years worth of earnings) implies that the market is overvalued by about 20% - however a crash rarely sees a neat and today mean reversion – a S&P base at around 800may eventuate and from there, ‘If history is a guide, when the Shiller P/E is at these levels, the 10 year annualised return of equities is just over 5%,’ Rosenberg says. But before that base is built don’t be surprised to see the equity markets keep falling  and property and maybe commodities too.

Phillipps sees Rosenberg’s view as being consistent with the fact that since March, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by a further $50 billion from taking on more mortgage-backed securities. So much for the Fed moving into tightening mode and a poke in the eye for the advocates of a V shaped recovery.

The key to such markets is connecting the dots (what George Soros calls reflexivity), waiting for the buying opportunities (the patient asset allocation of Martin Gray’s Osmium Portfolios) understanding the intrinsic value of assets (Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway approach) and understanding the macro environment well enough to interpret the data in away that corresponds with deciding the right time to enter or exit markets (which no-one does better than Iridium’s Scott Campbell).

There are times when the value of expertise will be well and truly highlighted – or as MitonOptimal’s  Joanne Baynham says “when the markets separate the men from the boys”.