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Paul Gambles

Recognized as a regional financial expert, Paul is a regular speaker at industry events on market forecasting, financial planning, investing and legal issues for foreigners living or doing business in Asia.  Besides Paul’s blog, Paul previously distributed his ‘almost-daily’ email – “Daily Updates”, where he gave his views on timely issues affecting financial markets, macro economics, micro economics and everything in-between.

Born in South Yorkshire, England, Paul graduated from the University of Warwick with an Honours degree in English and European Studies.  He began his financial career in the early 1980s as a technical inspector at HMIT with Inland Revenue.  Following a successful career change to the Bank of Scotland in 1987, Paul moved to Bangkok in 1994 to help set-up an investment counseling practice, which today is known as MBMG International.

www.mbmg-international.com

  

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12 February 2010

2010: THE YEAR OF THE TIGER

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 2010 is the Chinese Year of the Tiger, it will arrive on the 14th of February 2010.  Many people must be eager to know, if you are this way inclined, how the global markets will perform in 2010.  Here, we will try and use Chinese Astrology five elements (metal, water, wood, fire and earth) theory to forsee what will happen in the the global markets in the year of the TIGER.

According to the Chinese five element astrology calender, 2010 is the year of Metal Tiger.  Gold is related to metal and money.  People who like to talk about wealth will say that 2010 as a golden tiger. In the five elements theory, the colour representing metal is white.  Therefore, we could also say that 2010 is the year of the White Tiger.  The White Tiger is connected to the symbol of jinx in China history.  Some people may consider that 2010 White Tiger is a bad year.

Yiannis G Mostrous of KCI Investing recently wrote in an article on seekingalpha.com, “In the upcoming year of the Tiger, investors should keep in mind that Tigers often live dangerously.  The ancient chinese admired the Tiger for it’s fighting qualities, as well as it’s power and graciousness, and the animal is lauded for it’s agility and  ability to take advantage of tough situations”

Let’s take a look at recent events, the Banking and Financial tsunami that started in 2008 could have been triggered by the absence of fire elements and the dominating water elemet which can generate fear.

Tigers can be volatile at the best of times and this years Yang influence means we could be in for an intersting 12 months.  I wonder if Tiger Woods is reading this???!!!
 

Banking is Metal and it needs fire to melt it into useful tools. Finance and stockmarkets are related to fire which generates optimism. So you could say that the total absence of the fire element in 2008 and 2009 is resposible for the slow down of the economy and the banking crisis.  However, the Tiger of 2010 is mother and seed of fire, therefore you could say that with the fixed element of Wood (tiger being a wood sign) could create a condition of steady improvement in optimism which could bring a more healthy economic growth in 2010... but Tigers can be volatile at the best of times and this years Yang influence means we could be in for an intersting 12 months.  I wonder if Tiger Woods is reading this???!!!

Attributes of a Tiger – impatient, ruthless agressive, powerful, passionate, daring,  vigorous, stimulating, affectionate, generous and UNPREDICTABLE.

I believe our “stance” for 2010 is correct (expect the unexpected) as this year like a Tiger will be unpredictable, we will have to be daring and agressive in our choice of investments ensuring that we can re-align our portfolio at any moment, we must not have to much affection for a certain asset or commodity.  Be vigourous in research and lets hope that news soon will stimulate the global economy into a recovery.  Your advisors should be ruthless in making the correct choices at the correct time while never being impatient.Lets hope generous news and results globally will have a powerful effect improving the economies globally.  Like a Tiger you must be “quick and nimble” at all times.  On this “Rocky” path have the “eye of the Tiger”.

There is an old Chinese saying which goes roughly like this – “Once on a Tigers back, it’s hard to get off, but if you hang on it is certainly the safest place to be”.

Gung hay fat choy!!!