22 February 2010
PREDICTIONS FOR 2010
Philip Haddon of City wire last month asked readers to predict what level the S&P 500 Index will be at by the end of 2010 -
“Obviously no-one knows what events lay ahead in the next 12 months, but I would like to know where you think the S&P 500 will be at the end of 2010.
At the time of writing the S&P 500 is at 1133, having risen 26.5% in 2009….
Ever the optimist, I expect a volatile but positive year for markets. Clearly they have rallied hard since their lows and uncertainty remains over how the reversal of quantitative easing will impact markets, but the impression I get is that there is still a great deal of money on the sidelines ready to add support,” on that basis Haddon picked 1285 as this yearend target .
Citywire’s head of research, Jonathan Miller, believes that “volatility will continue but I sense that as the year goes on gains will be hard to come by.” predictions are for the S&P to close the year at 1200
Citywire’s, European editor, Angus Foote, sees French stocks ending the year more or less flat, is more pessimistic about the US stockmarket and targets 1100.
All 3 ‘experts’ also chose year end levels for the DAX and the CAC 40. Their UK colleague Charlie Parker undertook a similar exercise for the FTSE 100. We think that the potential for volatility has never been greater and that the range for the S&P closing level is notably anywhere between 500 and 1350. The balance of probabilities trough would indicate a range of 500-1000 as being likeliest and the midpoint of that range,750, is as likely as any other number and therefore as good a stab in the dark as any. What do you think?